Rampant Speculation, And Unavoidable Realities

Borepatch notes we will see how bad this virus outbreak is in about a month.

Au contraire.

Best Case:
Those 5 U. S. cases squeaked in, and that's it.

It's happened here before. It might happen again.

Middle Case:
It's simply ordinary corona virus, with a 3% death rate (on average), and it spreads apace, like they do. 

Actually, we'll know sooner than a month. Those 5 initial U.S. cases started cropping up here about 14 days ago, so we'll start seeing second-tier infections soon, if there are any. And if both our governmental overlords,and the ABCNNBCBS media, decides we should know about it. If we get 10-20 new cases shortly, we're probably screwed.

At that rate, absent any other mitigating factors, it's nationwide by around Christmas this year, and perhaps far sooner.
(2-14 day incubation, unknown transmissibility during latent phase, r0 of 2-4)
And even with simple corona virus, that's potentially up to 9M dead by then.
(3% of 300M or so)

Pretty grim, all in all. If you get the short straw.
Not so much if you're in the other 97%.
Sorry, but there it is.

Worst Case:It's some bio-engineered frankenvirus, with who-knows what lethality, r-naught, and incubation time.

OTOH, if it's some bioengineered frankenvirus, all bets are off, with who-knows-how-many casualties, nor what rate of transmission.

And what's coming out of China - every bit of it - is still unadulterated bullsh..., um, rose fertilizer.

You won't know if it's middle- or worst-case here until after it explodes here, and if it gets accurate media coverage. (Bear in mind that when Ebola coverage was freaking people here out in 2014, Obozo asked the MSM to stop talking about it, and they left skid marks and fell all over themselves to shut up until further notice. Learn a lesson there. Even if their regard and professional [sic] relationship is different with Orange Man, they didn't suddenly get an honestly transplant, nor a booster shot of competence.)

Anyone telling you different about this, at any of those plot points, is lying to you if their lips are moving, until further notice. The truth as yet is still BVR, out in the fog.
 

And other than hunkering down and self-quarantining in time, there's still nothing else you can do about it, except the basic infection control procedures previously covered.

 

{Nota bene, random fucktards, no one, least of all this site, is ringing the panic bell. You'll ignore this obvious truth, but that's why you're fucktards.}

The one certainty is that the kabuki-theatre temperature screening at the airport, of a virus that can incubate for 2-14 days, guarantees that more latent cases could arrive here every day, and if that happens, we won't know until after it's too late.

Top. Men.

And Lest Ye Forget:
Second-Order Effects

For sheer grins, this weekend, I'm going to compile a list of items used every day in my E.R. that are sourced from China.