Monday, November 10, 2014

Ebola Update 11/10

The latest WHO numbers are up on Wiki: Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone are now "officially" reporting 20, 35, and 60+ (respectively) new cases/day over the last 8 days.
So call it 100+ new victims, daily, or more every week than the worldwide total in the beginning of July - when this brushfire was already totally out of control.

The only thing we know from that is that people aren't going to the Ebola treatment centers, which isn't at all the same thing as saying that people aren't spreading the disease. The chickens there seem to have realized that the centers don't "treat" anything, they merely remove one from their family and friends to die alone, and they seem to be averse to that mode of government-run healthcare.
Which explains why the disease is exploding in Sierra Leone now, and will be shortly in Liberia (if it isn't already) in 10-21 days. As the number of native inhabitants in either country who can count (in a way the phrase is used in Western civilization) is something around 35%, whether we'll know beforehand is anyone's guess.

FYI, subtracting the known dead and presumed survivors from the current case count, and looking at the available bed count, leads to the inescapable conclusion that there are at least 4000-5000 known EVD victims still walking around in those three societies every day.
This is not a recipe for any sort of optimism.

NYTimes confirms that Dr. Doofus will be released shortly, Ebola-free, with no further US cases active at the moment.


In a Romper Room update, MiMi Crybaby and her sidekick Mangina plan to flee their former home precincts, because apparently they've been mentally scarred for life by the unconscionable response of the local Maine rural denizens to having someone with the professional ethics of the spiritual love child of Bill Clinton and Typhoid Mary living amongst them. Reportedly, certain suggestions and anonymous messages have made continued residence there a less-than-pleasant thing to contemplate. Boo frickin' hoo.

This decision tree was apparently not helped by the local college of nursing throwing Mangina out on his ass in the meantime. Perhaps he can find a better career fit in either the retail clerical or custodial/janitorial fields of occupational endeavor. (One suspects UT-Arlington will probably start quietly excising Mimi's graduate bio splash pages rather circumspectly in future days as well. "We train bigger jackholes" is probably not a good recruiting strategy in Texas, or anywhere else.)

Best of luck to those two, as any place they land will probably not take to them any better, from Georgetown D.C. to Timbuktu. But here's hoping Mangina gets a vasectomy before they manage to breed any more selfish little whiny bastards. Even the CDC is oversubscribed in that respect.


And now, the media have taken to reporting the end of quarantines a week in advance:
(Reuters) - Mali is preparing to release 108 people from Ebola quarantine in a tentative step toward declaring it has contained an outbreak.Mali became the sixth West African country to report a case of Ebola when a 2-year-old girl died last month, leading to an urgent search for anyone who may have been infected during her 1,200-km bus trip from Guinea to the Malian town of Kayes.
The Malian Ministry of Health is expected to confirm later on Monday that 29 people who may have had contact with her during a two-hour stopover in Bamako, along with 12 people in Kayes, can be released from a 21-day quarantine on Tuesday.
A further 67 contacts, including three relatives who traveled with her and 33 healthcare workers, are due to be given the all clear on Saturday.

While we're happy if Mali manages to stop Ebola faster than potato chips, at just one, this news story now leads to the inescapable conclusion about this whole story phenomenon, exactly as noted before hereabouts:

The Seven stages of Ebola Reporting:

1. What Ebola?
3. Don't Worry, the Government has TOP. MEN. on the case.
4. The TOP. MEN. Are Idiots! RUN FOR YOUR LIVES!
5. Ebola is killing everyone handy in droves, but they're mostly "just Africans".
6. Continued Ebola Stories upset the editorial bias and the entrenched bureaucracy.
7. What Ebola?

Don't worry though. Just like with future terrorism incidents, our first line of defense is the crack minions of vigilance at the TSA.

Duncan v2.0? Ha!
What Could Possibly Go Wrong?(tm)



  1. TrT is expected to announce Jessica Alba will be joining him and Mrs TrT for a threesome, he has never spoken to miss alba and Mrs trt would knee him in the balls, but its the future, so maybe.

    My made up future is way more fun than Malis

    If you're just going to make stuff up it might as well be way more awesome.
    Due to be cleared on saturday is another way of saying can still cause mass deaths until then really.
    Just less glowie.

  2. The young gifted and white couple reportedly wanted it made against the law to leave the building and run away each time they entered.
    The boyo friend wanted the school to make fellow students sit in his presence, stop talking about him in whispers and stop looking at him.
    The public at large has spoken.
    Hell I knew when this got reported that Mali would rid itself of Ebola faster than they got it.
    At least on paper.

  3. Ticking timebomb out there we are told:

  4. I've been number crunching the wiki numbers 25/08 to 09/11 and they look to have stopped the rate of growth.
    Deaths (per day) bounce around 40-60 and new cases 100-140
    Now, that may simply be that capacity doesn't exist to record the numbers, but over that time scale they don't appear to be getting worse quicker.

    Its interesting to note that the deaths catch up to the cases with a 35 day delay, until the 2000 dump of cases on 24/10

    Don't suppose the older numbers are readily available anywhere?

  5. 1) They haven't stopped the rate of growth; they've apparently only stopped attempting to count it.
    a) none of the three countries count actual cases, they count cases they've tested (which is about 1 in 3)
    b) if you just die, they credit it to witchcraft, or anything else other than Ebola
    c) now that people in W. Africa have figured out that "Ebola Treatment Center" actually means "Death Quarantine Center", they've stopped coming down to get into them. So they stay home, and infect the rest of the family and neighborhood. The outbreak continues to spread, completely unacknowledged. When those people die, they therefore haven't been tested, so magically, they aren't "Ebola" deaths. How clever.

    The older numbers are available at the Wikipedia page, and they link to the original WHO reports in endnotes.

    Knock yourself out.

    1. Thanks dude, click to show had me stumped.