Friday, October 31, 2014

Ebola Growth Rate

New cases per day, October 2014 (WHO numbers via Wikipedia)
Oct. 5= 135
Oct. 7= 149
Oct. 12= 137
Oct. 17= 138
Oct.19= 136
Oct. 24= 196
Oct. 27=239

(With the usual caveat that those are based purely on the "official" numbers, which are probably only 1/3 of the actual numbers, which means we could be getting 700 new cases/day, right now.)

So, tell me...anybody...what Imaginary Ebola Medical Strike Force is ANYONE going to conjure, and with what magic wand waving and incantations, that can deal with 239 to 700 new cases PER DAY, and increasing daily at a similar rate. Nota bene that it was 239/day four days ago, so it's probably 250-750 cases/day today.

If the key to solving the US Ebola problem is by solving it in West Africa, we should all kill ourselves now, because that's never, ever going to happen until this thing has killed somewhere between millions and hundreds of millions of Africans.

Wrap your head around that, as our troops work on creating the equivalent of 24 additional treatment beds/day (1700 beds ./. by 10 weeks work to early December, call it 70 days).
And tell me again why it was ever anything but a futile PR gesture, and a reckless risk of American troops lives on a hopeless mission.

(And BTW, if you're any of those troops' commanders above the rank of colonel, you're a gutless careerist sonofabitch who cares more about his pension than about protecting America or taking care of your troops - every goddamn last one of you, all the way to the 4 service chiefs and the JCS, for not resigning your star(s) if necessary and speaking out on this publicly long before now. Walk tall, you spineless wonders.
The writing is on the wall: Mene mene tekel uparsin.)

Anything we do in West Africa is one of two things: PR pablum, or a holding action, trying desperately to keep an orderly failure and retreat from turning into a full-blown rout.

And that includes all the do-gooder volunteers for every organization there now.
On a humanitarian scale, their individual work is selfless and commendable.
But from a practical standpoint based on results, they're simply pissing on a forest fire, and there aren't enough resources in the world available to make a dent in the problem, and never can or will be. We missed that opportunity somewhere around last May.

So spare me any more delusional rants about how quarantines of returning workers will adversely affect what happens there to any notable degree.
The obvious question is, How could you even tell?


  1. You are absolutely right. Trying to fight it over there IS like pissing on a forest fire.

    And if ebola comes to Central America, the US 48 states are fucked.


    (h/t to SOTG for linking to this before).

    Sending 3000-4000 American troops to Africa is pointless.

    The healthy in Central America will flood the southern US border to escape the sick. And the sick will will flood the southern US border in search of quality medical care.

    We need to amass our military on the southern border of the US N-O-W before the invasion starts.

    Call the next case. Not a cop.

  2. The southern border is easily secured.
    Step one is shooting at people trying to cross.
    There's seldom a need for Step Two at that point.

    I don't expect what the feds want one way or the other is going to matter much longer to the people who live thataway. One illegal with Ebola, and I suspect it'll be open season by the locals, and the feds couldn't stop that if they tried, just as they can't stop drug trafficking there now.

    1. Actually you don't even need to do that.

      Arrest and imprison the people responsible for employing them, high profile CEOs in particular (looking at you Mr. Marriott), and stop providing them benefits. They will self deport in short order.

      But the border must be secured regardless.

      This is the easiest solved of all of our problems.

      But this is futile discussion; these people vote for Democrats, they will NEVER be stopped by Democrats (that is actual Democrats or the people that call themselves Republicans and actually are Democrats in disguise).

  3. Another possible approach would be to pressure the commercial airlines to voluntarily suspend all flights into and out of West Africa (from anywhere) on their own initiative, without waiting for government action. The threat of a nurse walk-out in Dallas forced the CDC, against their will, to move those two sick nurses to BSL4 facilities. A mass pilot walk-out or the threat thereof could bear similar fruit.

    Ultimately, the Atlantic makes for a better natural barrier than the Rio Grande. Drug dealers dig tunnels under the U.S./Mexico border all the time, but ain't nobody gonna dig a tunnel under the ocean.

  4. Anambra Nigeria a restaurant was investigated after two human heads were found prepared as food and wrapped in cellophane. Eleven people arrested.
    Allegedly selling human bush meat.
    Whether true or false this shows what the score is in Africa.
    This is why it's so easy for a disease to spread, ignorance and stupidity.
    Africa wins again.

  5. The media that cries wolf.
    The American people have been alerted to the presence of doom during the entire Obama Presidency, every week it's something new, something dire or socially disruptive.
    One crisis after another and I believe the people are weary of the shit.
    The media is crying wolf and no one is listening.