Sunday, October 19, 2014

Six Reasons To Panic

Article From the Weekly Standard - Read The Whole Thing

A couple of highlights:
In other words, rather than catching up with Ebola, we’re falling further behind. And we’re likely to continue falling behind, because physical and human resources do not scale virally. In order to stop the spread of Ebola, the reproduction number needs to be more than halved from its current rate. Yet reducing the reproduction number only gets harder as the total number of cases increases, because each case requires resources—facilities, beds, doctors, nurses, decontamination, and secure burials—which are already lagging well behind need. The latest WHO projections suggest that by December 1 we are likely to see 10,000 new cases in West Africa per week, at which point the virus could begin spreading geographically within the continent as it nears the border with Ivory Coast.
And just to keep you up at night:

In September, the CDC ran a series of models on the spread of the virus and came up with a best-case scenario in which, by January 2015, Liberia alone would have a cumulative 11,000 to 27,000 cases. That’s in a world where all of the aid and personnel gets where it needs to be, the resident population behaves rationally, and everything breaks their way. The worst-case scenario envisioned by the model is anywhere from 537,000 to 1,367,000 cases by January. Just in Liberia. With the fever still raging out of control.
By which point, all might well be lost. Anthony Banbury is coordinating the response from the United Nations, which, whatever its many shortcomings, is probably the ideal organization to take the lead on Ebola. Banbury’s view is chilling: “The WHO advises within 60 days we must ensure 70 percent of infected people are in a care facility and 70 percent of burials are done without causing further infection. .  .  . We either stop Ebola now or we face an entirely unprecedented situation for which we do not have a plan [emphasis added]”.
What’s terrifying about the worst-case scenario isn’t just the scale of human devastation and misery. It’s that the various state actors and the official health establishment have already been overwhelmed with infections in only the four-digit range. And if the four pillars—contact tracing, case isolation, safe burial, and effective public information—fail, no one seems to have even a theoretical plan for what to do.

h/t to WRSA!


  1. WashPost seems to be trying to calm people down with the standard bullshit:

  2. A top scientist worries that Ebola has mutated to become more contagious:

  3. Judicial Watch: Obama to Admit Non-Citizens for Ebola Treatment

    Friday, 17 Oct 2014 04:00 PM

    "The government watchdog group Judicial Watch alleged Friday the Obama administration is formulating plans to admit Ebola-infected non-U.S. citizens into the United States for treatment.

    "The group, which cited one unidentified source, said the administration would aim to bring Ebola patients into the United States for treatment within the first days of diagnosis, and that it’s not clear who’d pay either for the transportation or treatment.

    "The group alleged the plan for treatment includes special waivers of laws and regulations that ban the admission of non-citizens with a communicable disease; Judicial Watch cited its source saying the administration has not told Congress about the plan."

  4. Could the individual States enact their own state border closing's?
    Not just legally but physically close the borders to the states around them.

  5. Yes, and they will if D.C. doesn't get their crap in one bag pretty fast, and they'll do it with the full backing of their state legislatures.
    Look at what happened when TX tried to ship Ebola waste into LA: Jindal was practically standing at the state line telling them "No you won't either!"

    All a governor has to do is cite a bona fide health emergency, and it's a done deal.
    If you think federal troops are going to go up against some state's NG manning a road block, I've got a bridge to sell you.
    Once one state does it, they all will, as soon as they feel the need.

    That is what happens when you let assclowns play with the levers of powers: everything falls apart.

  6. CDC Whitewash:

  7. A Nigerian dies onboard an aircraft headed for JFK???

    Saw this post another blog:

    On another note, do people really believe these hacks and liars when they tell us immediately yesterday that the Nigerian who died on the flight in to JFK while vomiting violently did not have ebola. After all the lying and prevaricating and incompetence they are in full cover up mode and hoping to bury tracks quickly. why should I or any other thinking person believe what they said about that guy. How did he die, why was the story buried, why is there no follow up on his autopsy? If its out soon that a cat flew sick into NYC the financial nerve center of the world and then flat out died on the airline potentially infecting hundreds on the flight with ebola these clowns have extreme motive to coverup.


    SOTG, a follow up investigation please!