{h/t to Vinny (Ex-Dissident) @ Vinny's Rants for catching this...}
I have referred to the Wikipedia Ebola virus epidemic in West Africa page for numbers since mid-July, because they've been maintaining it circumspectly, it's accessible, and I'm lazy.
They generally post the WHO .pdf updates that come out every 2-5 days, and usually with a day or so, so I don't have to wade through .pdf hell trying to get the simple info.
I fact, I was using the posted number there when I was writing the "Number Crunching" post yesterday, and I hadn't looked at it today.
Apparently, someone seems to have found whatever was keeping the needle stuck.
To wit:
24 Oct 2014 12,008 cases 5,078 deaths
19 Oct 2014 9,936 cases 4,877 deaths
17 Oct 2014 9,693 cases 4,811 deaths
2000 new cases in the last FIVE days?!!
Sweet blazing hell! If you're in Africa, RUN FOR YOUR LIFE!
Look at the chart on the page; it hasn't increased by 2000 cases in the last 3 weeks.
Earlier today, I was about to note that I missed a WaPo news report a couple weeks back that related the Pentagon has revised their timetable for completing the 1700 beds; it's now going to take until early December, rather than mid-November, i.e. another 2-3 weeks.
I was going to note how far behind they'd be when they finally get to December.
But now, that whole post is pointless.
Those 1700 beds just became obsolete between last Sunday and last Friday morning.
And it's taking us 9 weeks to make 1700 beds' worth of facilities.
Ebola is making 400 new patients per day.
For the love of God, get our troops the hell out of there right fucking now!
Just tell them to drop their shit where it is, grab their duffel bag, and be on the runway ready to go in 5 minutes, fly in, pick them up, and just GO!
I have no clue what caused the uptick: they got religion, they found a box full of casualty reports next to Hillary Clinton's Whitewater files, somebody passed 4th grade, whatever...I dunno.
But those numbers are a nuclear launch of this epidemic, and it's going to eat everything in its path at this point if they're even the usual 1/3 of legit they've supposedly been.
If we're actually at triple those numbers, we just went from Double #13 to #15 (out of 33), meaning we're now 18 doubles away from worldwide pandemic, and we're there a month earlier than my guesstimates indicated (forget CDC and WHO projections, they're barely close to where we thought we were).
And people there, starting with the ones in the know, are going to start getting the hell out of there any way they can, and going any place they can get.
Personally, I feel like Steve McQueen at the end of The Sand Pebbles:
"What happened? What the hell HAPPENED?"
Of course, they still have to find the missing 18,000 cases that are likely there, or were, plus all the other dead.
ReplyDeleteGood grief.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.washingtonpost.com/national/health-science/amber-vinson-dallas-nurse-leaving-hospital-after-ebola-cure/2014/10/28/d37e7fae-5e95-11e4-8b9e-2ccdac31a031_story.html
"Obama assails Ebola quarantines, saying they are based on fear, not facts"
You are gd dm right it's based on fear. Facts? What the hell is he smoking?
Put some of these at risk individuals in the WH first, when that all works out then we can talk about skipping quarantines.
How did this idiot get to be the person making these decisions for the whole 300 mln of us? This is not a drill! Indeed, bring the troops back now!
The ACS was a bad decision, weaponizing the IRS was a bad decision, we all know how much more there is when you say bad decision, and those things are pretty damn serious in their own rights. And to top it all off as a gift Obama thinks infecting the whole damn country with the deadliest communicable disease that mankind has yet seen, is a good decision?
WTAF?
Oh Hell.
ReplyDeleteThe Mission of the US Military in Africa became Moot.
Those beds and hospitals are gonna be useless.
They need to ship in incinerators and cremation gear at this point
The stuck needle appears to have been the Liberian data which appears to not have been adequately updated in the previous month. It had been showing a leveling trend despite the reported of meltdown, in fairness the wiki chart had an asterisk all along noting that this was probably due to overwhelmed authorities failing to report rather than reflecting actual trends. The data is now back about where it would be expected on the previous exponential curve - so now is that actual reported data or a guessed extrapolation? Which has been under-reported all along - but hey, a under-report factor of three only a months increase anyway.
ReplyDeleteAnyway, its exponential, and is exponential is exponential, and it looks like its out of control. To be brutal, when it comes to epidemic control, treatment is only a tool to attract people to the isolation wards. Can any amount of money and foreign workers help with things like, oh, contact tracing in that environment?
At some point in firefighting one stops trying to save the building and starts making firebreaks. Just sayin'.
W. Africa was there in September.
ReplyDeleteEveryone is afraid to face the obvious.